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The external spherical bearing steel market oscillated in April

[Author: Jiang Rui Bearing] [Date: 2018-03-13] [heat: ]
Summary: From January to February, the output of domestic crude steel for bearing steel increased by 22.69% year-on-year, the output of bearing steel increased by 20.97% year-on-year, and exports decreased by 37.58% year-on-year. Looking back at the bearing steel market in March, the price of bearing steel was generally stable, and some low- and medium-grade materials showed a slight decline, and demand slowed. As of now, the low-cost resources for domestic continuous casting unannealed materials are 4,350 yuan / ton; mid-range materials are priced at 4,800 yuan / ton; and high-end materials are 5,800 yuan / ton. Considering that the production capacity of steel mills is not diminishing and the inventory pressure is difficult to change in the later period, it is expected that the bearing steel prices in April will be weak.
I. Domestic Bearing Steel Production
1. Production in January-February: Bearing crude steel and steel both increased year-on-year. According to statistics from the Special Steel Association, the output of crude steel for bearing steel of major excellent and special steel enterprises in China in January-February 2017 was 497,200 tons, which was comparable to the same period last year Compared with the same period last year, it increased 22.69%; from January to February 2017, the output of bearing steel products of China's major special steel enterprises was 50 million tons, an increase of 20.97% compared with the same period last year. See Figure 1 for details.
2. From January to February, the output of finished steel products of bearing steel manufacturers: Steel mill output increased year-on-year. As can be seen from Figure 2, the current top three bearing steel production is CITIC Special Steel (Xinye Steel and Xingcheng Special Steel), giants Noh and Bent accounted for 61% of the total output. With the profitability of the steel mills, the overall output of bearing steel has increased. Steel plants such as CITIC Special Steel, Dongte and Nangang have increased a lot compared to the same period last year.
Figure 2: Proportion of bearing steel production in the total output of major companies in January-February 2017
Performance of the domestic bearing steel market
The export volume of bearing steel in January and February decreased year-on-year. According to statistics from 10 major domestic bearing steel manufacturers, the export value of domestic bearing steel in February 2017 basically showed a downward trend. The export volume was 8,487 tons, a decrease of 1,287 tons from last month, a year-on-year decrease. Reduced by 37.58%, down 13.17% from the previous month. The following figure (Figure 3) shows the export changes of China's bearing steel in the past 16 years. At present, China's bearing steel exports are still concentrated in Xingcheng, Daye Special Steel and Northeast Special Steel. Among them, Xingcheng Special Steel exported 8054 tons, accounting for most of the export.

2. The overall price of bearing steel market remained stable in March and March
In March, domestic bearing steel prices were generally stable, and some low- and medium-grade materials showed a slight decline. In the case of unstable prices, the enthusiasm of the terminal to pick up the goods has weakened, and the wait-and-see mood is extremely serious. It will take some time for the enthusiasm of the procurement to improve. In view of the limited support effect of the demand link on prices, coupled with the continuous release of steel plant capacity, the decline in inventory is not as fast as expected. It is expected that the bearing steel price shock in April is likely to be relatively weak.
Relevant market information
1. Price of raw materials:

The price of imported ore fluctuated downward in March, and the price at the end of the month was 81.5 US dollars per dry ton; the general carbon scrap market continued to climb, and the average price at the end of the month was 1507 yuan / ton, down 4.38% from the end of last month; The average price is 10,237 yuan / ton. On the whole, downstream demand has slowed down, and the oversupply contradiction has become increasingly prominent. It is expected that downward pressure on the raw material market will gradually increase in April.
2. Downstream industry According to the statistical analysis of the China Automobile Industry Association, in February 2017, due to the holiday factors, the overall level of automobile production and sales was low, but maintained a rapid growth year-on-year. From January to February, the production and sales of automobiles showed an increase, an increase from the same period last year. In February, automobile production was 2.159 million, a decrease of 8.84% month-on-month, and an increase of 33.77% year-on-year; sales of 1,939,200 vehicles, a decrease of 23.03%, and an increase of 22.37% year-on-year. From January to February, the production and sales of automobiles were 4,529,900 and 4,459,900, an increase of 11.07% and 8.84% year-on-year.

3. Conclusion Looking back at the market in March, the overall steel environment has weakened, and fundamental improvements have continued to fall short of expectations. The mentality of the bearing steel market has also been affected, and some market prices have started to fall slightly. In addition, the current price gap between GCr15 and 45 # carbon-bonded steel has increased, reaching 800-1000 yuan / ton, making end-users more cautious in purchasing and the market wait-and-see mood.
Although it is a traditional peak season, downstream procurement costs have increased significantly compared to previous years, and excessive capital pressure has led to a significant slowdown in downstream procurement efforts. In recent stages, major bearing steel manufacturers have rarely reduced their production and maintenance, and the contradiction of oversupply in the later period is still acute. In view of the limited support effect of the demand link on prices, the high profit of steel mills is still a time bomb for the depth of market price decline in the later period. In addition, the capacity release of steel mills has not decreased, and the inventory decline rate has fallen short of expectations. Prices will still face callback pressure.
In summary, the traditional peak season demand is less than expected, and the supply-demand relationship is still facing some pressure. It is expected that the domestic bearing steel market price will continue to adjust in April, and the possibility of weak shocks is greater.

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